Closing spread
DAL -7
Total
47
Model margin
+4.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.109
- 44.2%Success rate45.8%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.071
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.32CPOE+4.58
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.2%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.67Points / drive2.23
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. DAL are 26-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:50 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 10:10 | 8 | 46 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DAL | Q1 4:53 | 9 | 101 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q2 14:56 | 6 | -2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| DAL | Q2 11:21 | 20 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NYG | Q2 0:53 | 7 | 56 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q2 0:07 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–14 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 67 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q3 6:53 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 14–17 |
| DAL | Q3 3:07 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 14–17 |
| NYG | Q3 0:53 | 6 | 37 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| DAL | Q4 13:29 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NYG | Q4 9:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–17 |
| DAL | Q4 7:00 | 9 | 10 | Punt | 21–17 |
| NYG | Q4 3:46 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–17 |
| DAL | Q4 1:50 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 21–17 |
| NYG | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/18 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/36 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 27 | 129 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.38