Closing spread
GB -9
Total
44
Model margin
+2.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play+0.075
- 45.1%Success rate43.6%
- +0.107EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.109
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- +2.40CPOE+4.25
- 35.7%Third-down rate42.9%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.77Points / drive2.16
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q1 14:43 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 14:40 | 2 | 14 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:51 | 7 | 43 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| GB | Q1 10:59 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| SEA | Q1 7:08 | 4 | -10 | Punt | 14–7 |
| GB | Q1 5:52 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SEA | Q1 1:02 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| GB | Q2 14:54 | 3 | 18 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| SEA | Q2 13:22 | 10 | 47 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| GB | Q2 7:18 | 14 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| SEA | Q2 0:26 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–28 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–28 |
| GB | Q3 13:54 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| SEA | Q3 10:25 | 14 | 75 | Field goal | 20–35 |
| GB | Q3 2:46 | 8 | 62 | Touchdown | 20–42 |
| SEA | Q4 13:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–42 |
| GB | Q4 12:21 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 20–42 |
| SEA | Q4 9:11 | 6 | 22 | Turnover on downs | 20–42 |
| GB | Q4 8:03 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 20–42 |
| SEA | Q4 5:26 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 20–42 |
| GB | Q4 3:22 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–42 |
| SEA | Q4 1:09 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 20–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 19/33 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/23 | 173 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 27 | 201 | 7.4 | 3 |
| Brandon Jackson | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.79