Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.075
- 44.2%Success rate43.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.32CPOE+4.25
- 41.9%Third-down rate42.9%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.67Points / drive2.16
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/40 | 254 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/35 | 236 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.96