Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.0est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.038EPA / play+0.075
- 44.2%Success rate43.6%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.008EPA / rush-0.109
- 7.8%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.32CPOE+4.25
- 41.9%Third-down rate42.9%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.67Points / drive2.16
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 48.5 points. GB are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:38 | 13 | 65 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:50 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q1 2:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 0:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 14:45 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| GB | Q2 11:41 | 1 | 90 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:18 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 6–7 |
| GB | Q2 8:56 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 6–7 |
| NYG | Q2 6:21 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 6–7 |
| GB | Q2 4:28 | 8 | 24 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| NYG | Q2 1:30 | 6 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 6–10 |
| GB | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–10 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 16 | 49 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| GB | Q3 7:56 | 6 | 27 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| NYG | Q3 5:00 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| GB | Q3 2:12 | 6 | 49 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| GB | Q4 14:00 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 20–20 |
| NYG | Q4 11:46 | 11 | 38 | Missed field goal | 20–20 |
| GB | Q4 6:49 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–20 |
| NYG | Q4 5:53 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 20–20 |
| GB | Q4 2:48 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–20 |
| NYG | Q4 2:15 | 6 | 40 | Missed field goal | 20–20 |
| GB | OT | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 20–20 |
| NYG | OT | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/40 | 254 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 21 | 67 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/35 | 236 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.96