Closing spread
NE -16
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.103
- 42.2%Success rate46.7%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.071
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- -3.09CPOE+1.36
- 37.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.48Points / drive2.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 8–7 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NE are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 8/12 | 118 | 1 | 1 |
| Brodie Croyle | 11/19 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 22 | 74 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 13/18 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 7/11 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Laurence Maroney | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.29