Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
37
Model margin
+2.6est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.004
- 44.2%Success rate44.6%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.032
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.44CPOE+3.08
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.7%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.65
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 20/25 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 17/28 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.59