Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
37
Model margin
+0.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play+0.038
- 46.7%Success rate47.0%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.031
- +0.071EPA / rush+0.048
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.36CPOE+3.75
- 44.4%Third-down rate40.6%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.35Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 72 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:57 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NE | Q1 1:54 | 8 | 29 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:16 | 10 | 77 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| NE | Q2 7:28 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 6–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:41 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–3 |
| NE | Q2 2:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:06 | 2 | 8 | End of half | 6–3 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:10 | 6 | 26 | Turnover | 6–3 |
| NE | Q3 9:20 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–3 |
| NE | Q3 4:49 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:17 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| NE | Q4 10:18 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:18 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 19–10 |
| NE | Q4 3:45 | 6 | 26 | End of half | 19–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 16/23 | 165 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMont Jordan | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 8 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 18/26 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 17 | 70 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.53