Closing spread
NE -12.5
Total
37
Model margin
+4.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.103
- 46.3%Success rate46.7%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.039EPA / rush+0.071
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- +4.74CPOE+1.36
- 37.1%Third-down rate44.4%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.69Points / drive2.35
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 17/20 | 226 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1/1 | 19 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 17 | 113 | 6.6 | 4 |
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 98 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/31 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin O'Connell | 3/4 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.73%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.8%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.01