Closing spread
SD -6
Total
45
Model margin
+0.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 73 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 10:41 | 9 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:53 | 4 | 62 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| NE | Q1 3:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 2:43 | 4 | 19 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| NE | Q1 0:42 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 12:10 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NE | Q2 10:43 | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 7:13 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NE | Q2 4:39 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LAC | Q2 2:22 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| NE | Q2 1:07 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 3–17 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 76 | Turnover on downs | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 9:12 | 5 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| NE | Q3 7:07 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| LAC | Q3 6:55 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 3–27 |
| NE | Q3 4:20 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–27 |
| LAC | Q3 2:40 | 14 | 66 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| NE | Q4 10:50 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 3–30 |
| LAC | Q4 9:07 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–30 |
| NE | Q4 8:59 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| LAC | Q4 5:18 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 10–30 |
| NE | Q4 2:01 | 9 | 68 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 22/38 | 203 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.