Closing spread
SD -6
Total
45
Model margin
+0.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 22/38 | 203 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.27
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.