2008 · Week 7

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Jay Cutler

7·41

Patriots

New England

QB Matt Cassel

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 40°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

48

Model margin

+5.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapPatriots
  • +0.101EPA / play+0.103
  • 49.2%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.157EPA / dropback+0.127
  • -0.007EPA / rush+0.071
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.41CPOE+1.36
  • 48.2%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.35
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/2616812
Patrick Ramsey2/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Pittman20884.40
Jay Cutler3186.00
Brandon Marshall177.00
Andre Hall2-7-3.50

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel18/2418530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sammy Morris161388.61
BenJarvus Green-Ellis13655.01
Kevin Faulk45012.50
Matt Cassel410.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

47.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.48