Closing spread
NE -3
Total
48
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.101EPA / play+0.103
- 49.2%Success rate46.7%
- +0.157EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.071
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.41CPOE+1.36
- 48.2%Third-down rate44.4%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 2.01Points / drive2.35
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. NE are 11-12 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 41 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 8:53 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:08 | 4 | 23 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 2:55 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q1 2:06 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NE | Q1 0:24 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–6 |
| DEN | Q2 12:14 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–6 |
| NE | Q2 10:09 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| DEN | Q2 7:34 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| NE | Q2 5:10 | 10 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| DEN | Q2 0:44 | 4 | 14 | Turnover | 0–20 |
| NE | Q2 0:17 | 1 | -9 | End of half | 0–20 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 0–20 |
| DEN | Q3 10:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–20 |
| NE | Q3 8:47 | 3 | 28 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| DEN | Q3 7:32 | 4 | 35 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| NE | Q3 5:59 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–34 |
| DEN | Q3 2:21 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| NE | Q4 13:21 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 7–34 |
| DEN | Q4 8:37 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–34 |
| NE | Q4 6:22 | 7 | 52 | Touchdown | 7–41 |
| DEN | Q4 3:09 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 7–41 |
| NE | Q4 1:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–41 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/26 | 168 | 1 | 2 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Andre Hall | 2 | -7 | -3.5 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 18/24 | 185 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 16 | 138 | 8.6 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 50 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
47.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.48