Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.084
- 44.2%Success rate46.3%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.44CPOE+4.74
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.69
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. MIA are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 9:26 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q1 4:21 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 12:41 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q2 12:32 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q2 8:19 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q2 7:17 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 6–7 |
| MIA | Q2 4:02 | 6 | 52 | Missed field goal | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q2 1:38 | 8 | 24 | Field goal | 9–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 16–7 |
| MIA | Q3 10:17 | 4 | 60 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| BUF | Q3 7:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–10 |
| MIA | Q3 5:56 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| BUF | Q3 1:15 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 16–17 |
| MIA | Q4 14:46 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 16–20 |
| BUF | Q4 13:17 | 4 | 44 | Turnover | 16–20 |
| MIA | Q4 11:41 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 16–20 |
| BUF | Q4 8:01 | 3 | -3 | Safety | 16–22 |
| MIA | Q4 7:40 | 7 | 26 | Field goal | 16–25 |
| BUF | Q4 3:53 | 9 | 51 | Turnover | 16–25 |
| MIA | Q4 1:44 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 16–25 |
| MIA | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–25 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 21/35 | 227 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/30 | 314 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | -5 | -1.3 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.62