Closing spread
IND -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play+0.114
- 46.7%Success rate48.1%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.230
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.087
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.4%
- +1.36CPOE+4.76
- 44.4%Third-down rate50.8%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 2.35Points / drive2.14
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 25/34 | 204 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1/1 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 10 | 60 | 6.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/29 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 32 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.13