Closing spread
BUF -5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.050
- 47.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.043
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.059
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.75CPOE+1.44
- 40.6%Third-down rate40.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.85Points / drive1.59
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 42 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:13 | 4 | 52 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:26 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 3–7 |
| BUF | Q1 9:06 | 1 | -9 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:01 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| BUF | Q1 8:05 | 16 | 47 | Opp touchdown | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 13–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:57 | 15 | 68 | Missed field goal | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q2 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 13–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:41 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 16–7 |
| BUF | Q3 8:55 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:32 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 23–10 |
| BUF | Q3 1:07 | 10 | 60 | Missed field goal | 23–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 11:05 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 23–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:53 | 15 | 65 | Field goal | 26–17 |
| BUF | Q4 2:12 | 4 | 38 | Turnover | 26–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 26–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/28 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 24/35 | 289 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79