Closing spread
BUF -5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.050
- 47.0%Success rate44.2%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.043
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.059
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +3.75CPOE+1.44
- 40.6%Third-down rate40.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.85Points / drive1.59
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 19/28 | 201 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 24/35 | 289 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 9 | 16 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.79