Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.050
- 36.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.205EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.059
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -11.69CPOE+1.44
- 33.5%Third-down rate40.4%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.05Points / drive1.59
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CLE–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 14:45 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 13:49 | 4 | 24 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CLE | Q1 11:40 | 5 | 26 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:29 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 6:25 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:52 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 3:21 | 3 | -4 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| BUF | Q1 2:28 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–0 |
| CLE | Q1 0:49 | 13 | 91 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| BUF | Q2 9:52 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| CLE | Q2 6:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–7 |
| BUF | Q2 4:42 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 13–10 |
| BUF | Q3 13:07 | 5 | 24 | Turnover | 13–10 |
| CLE | Q3 10:47 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 16–10 |
| BUF | Q3 6:27 | 11 | 45 | Field goal | 16–13 |
| CLE | Q3 0:22 | 2 | 83 | Touchdown | 23–19 |
| BUF | Q4 14:47 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| CLE | Q4 14:33 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 26–20 |
| BUF | Q4 11:32 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 26–20 |
| CLE | Q4 7:40 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 26–20 |
| BUF | Q4 5:13 | 5 | 48 | Touchdown | 26–27 |
| CLE | Q4 2:25 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 29–27 |
| BUF | Q4 1:39 | 4 | 27 | Missed field goal | 29–27 |
| CLE | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 29–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 14/36 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 80 | 26.7 | 1 |
| Jamal Lewis | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 16/26 | 148 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 119 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.64
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.42