Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.050
- 36.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.205EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.059
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -11.69CPOE+1.44
- 33.5%Third-down rate40.4%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.05Points / drive1.59
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. BUF are 6-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Quinn | 14/36 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Harrison | 3 | 80 | 26.7 | 1 |
| Jamal Lewis | 18 | 65 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brady Quinn | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 16/26 | 148 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 23 | 119 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.64
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.42