Closing spread
NE -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.103
- 47.0%Success rate46.7%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.127
- +0.048EPA / rush+0.071
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +3.75CPOE+1.36
- 40.6%Third-down rate44.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.85Points / drive2.35
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/33 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 30 | 104 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 30/51 | 400 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45