Closing spread
NE -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.103
- 47.0%Success rate46.7%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.127
- +0.048EPA / rush+0.071
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +3.75CPOE+1.36
- 40.6%Third-down rate44.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.85Points / drive2.35
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NE | Q1 9:26 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:25 | 9 | 45 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:06 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 16–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:44 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–6 |
| NE | Q2 9:32 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 17–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:22 | 5 | 87 | Touchdown | 24–6 |
| NE | Q2 4:57 | 6 | 55 | Turnover on downs | 24–6 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:33 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 24–6 |
| NE | Q2 1:44 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 24–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 57 | Turnover | 24–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:03 | 3 | -13 | Punt | 24–13 |
| NE | Q3 11:17 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 24–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:29 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 24–13 |
| NE | Q3 5:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 4:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 24–13 |
| NE | Q3 2:25 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Turnover | 24–21 |
| NE | Q4 12:33 | 5 | 31 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:16 | 16 | 63 | Touchdown | 31–24 |
| NE | Q4 3:10 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 31–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 31–24 |
| NE | Q4 1:04 | 5 | 67 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 31–31 |
| NYJ | OT | 13 | 64 | Field goal | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 26/33 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 30 | 104 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 30/51 | 400 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 8 | 62 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.45