Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.051
- 44.2%Success rate42.2%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.44CPOE-3.09
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.7%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.48
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 24/32 | 273 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 2 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 17/31 | 240 | 3 | 2 |
| Quinn Gray | 7/8 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.71