Closing spread
BUF -3
Total
43
Model margin
+2.7est.
KC perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.051
- 44.2%Success rate42.2%
- -0.043EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.107
- 8.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.44CPOE-3.09
- 40.4%Third-down rate37.7%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.48
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 11:15 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 6:42 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 5:46 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:58 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 13:15 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 10:04 | 5 | 6 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 8:53 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| KC | Q2 7:53 | 2 | 29 | Opp touchdown | 20–14 |
| KC | Q2 7:11 | 6 | 44 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| BUF | Q2 3:22 | 4 | 53 | Field goal | 23–17 |
| KC | Q2 1:33 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 23–17 |
| BUF | Q2 1:20 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 30–17 |
| KC | Q2 0:04 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 30–17 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 23 | Touchdown | 37–17 |
| KC | Q3 12:32 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 37–17 |
| BUF | Q3 11:29 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 40–17 |
| KC | Q3 10:05 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 40–24 |
| BUF | Q3 7:53 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 47–24 |
| KC | Q3 2:58 | 7 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 47–24 |
| BUF | Q3 0:32 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 47–24 |
| KC | Q4 12:45 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 47–24 |
| BUF | Q4 10:40 | 3 | 29 | Touchdown | 54–24 |
| KC | Q4 9:18 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 54–24 |
| BUF | Q4 7:56 | 6 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 54–24 |
| KC | Q4 4:38 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 54–31 |
| BUF | Q4 2:23 | 1 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 54–31 |
| KC | Q4 0:37 | 3 | 52 | End of half | 54–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 24/32 | 273 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 79 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 2 |
| J.P. Losman | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 17/31 | 240 | 3 | 2 |
| Quinn Gray | 7/8 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
6.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.71