Closing spread
NE -1
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play+0.084
- 46.7%Success rate46.3%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.039
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.36CPOE+4.74
- 44.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
- 2.35Points / drive1.69
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 30/43 | 415 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 24/41 | 341 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.72