Closing spread
NE -1
Total
39
Model margin
+2.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.103
- 42.9%Success rate46.7%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.103EPA / rush+0.071
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.13CPOE+1.36
- 41.3%Third-down rate44.4%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.61Points / drive2.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 15–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. NE are 13-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 14 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 12:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 10:23 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 8:39 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NE | Q1 2:51 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 13:04 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PIT | Q2 12:08 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NE | Q2 11:43 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| PIT | Q2 6:48 | 9 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 1:55 | 8 | 69 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 10–10 |
| PIT | Q3 12:32 | 13 | 79 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| NE | Q3 5:39 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| PIT | Q3 5:32 | 2 | 8 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| NE | Q3 5:04 | 1 | -3 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| PIT | Q3 4:51 | 4 | 25 | Field goal | 23–10 |
| NE | Q3 2:50 | 6 | -3 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| PIT | Q3 0:36 | 9 | 25 | Missed field goal | 23–10 |
| NE | Q4 11:29 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 23–10 |
| PIT | Q4 9:18 | 6 | 49 | Field goal | 26–10 |
| NE | Q4 5:43 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 26–10 |
| PIT | Q4 3:27 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 33–10 |
| NE | Q4 2:44 | 7 | 22 | End of half | 33–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/33 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/39 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 73 | 12.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 4 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.55