Closing spread
NE -1
Total
39
Model margin
+2.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.103
- 42.9%Success rate46.7%
- +0.022EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.103EPA / rush+0.071
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.13CPOE+1.36
- 41.3%Third-down rate44.4%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.61Points / drive2.35
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. NE are 12-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 17/33 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 19/39 | 169 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 73 | 12.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 4 | 1 | 45 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.55