Closing spread
BUF -1
Total
43
Model margin
-3.8est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play-0.050
- 46.3%Success rate44.2%
- +0.181EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.74CPOE+1.44
- 37.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 69.4%Red-zone TD rate44.7%
- 1.69Points / drive1.59
- 1.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 23/29 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 13/27 | 123 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 5 | 53 | 10.6 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.13
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-4.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.80