Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
-0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play-0.057
- 46.7%Success rate37.8%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.022
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.36CPOE-5.09
- 44.4%Third-down rate31.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 2.35Points / drive1.56
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:00 | 13 | 87 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 5:25 | 9 | 43 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q1 0:48 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| NE | Q2 12:30 | 7 | 34 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q2 9:09 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NE | Q2 6:43 | 10 | 37 | Punt | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NE | Q2 0:41 | 3 | 15 | End of half | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NE | Q3 9:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–14 |
| SEA | Q3 8:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NE | Q3 7:23 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 13–14 |
| SEA | Q3 2:40 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| NE | Q3 0:41 | 9 | 68 | Field goal | 16–21 |
| SEA | Q4 12:19 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 16–21 |
| NE | Q4 8:47 | 14 | 71 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| SEA | Q4 2:44 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 24–21 |
| NE | Q4 1:54 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 26/44 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 20/28 | 212 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.45