Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
43
Model margin
-0.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.103EPA / play-0.057
- 46.7%Success rate37.8%
- +0.127EPA / dropback-0.022
- +0.071EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.36CPOE-5.09
- 44.4%Third-down rate31.4%
- 54.1%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 2.35Points / drive1.56
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 26/44 | 268 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sammy Morris | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| LaMont Jordan | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 20/28 | 212 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.18
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.45