Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
39
Model margin
-1.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play-0.081
- 44.4%Success rate42.5%
- +0.044EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.187
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- +4.61CPOE+1.54
- 37.5%Third-down rate35.0%
- 66.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.82Points / drive1.51
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NE are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 33/44 | 327 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 10 | 14 | 129 | 1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 12 | 16 | 117 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 15/27 | 149 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 11 | 96 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 21 | 81 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 8 | 12 | 109 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.73