2024 · Week 2

Final / OT

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

23·20

Patriots

New England

QB Jacoby Brissett

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -3.5

Total

39

Model margin

-1.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPatriots
  • -0.013EPA / play-0.081
  • 44.4%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.044EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.187
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +4.61CPOE+1.54
  • 37.5%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 66.6%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.51
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–3 since 1999

SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NE are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NE @ SEA10–13SEA
2025 · playoffsSEA @ NE29–13SEA
2020 · W2NE @ SEA30–35SEA
2016 · W10SEA @ NE31–24SEA
2014 · playoffsNE @ SEA28–24NE
2012 · W6NE @ SEA23–24SEA
2008 · W14NE @ SEA24–21NE
2004 · W6SEA @ NE20–30NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NE
NEQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:0367Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:49860Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 4:56472Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 2:501459Field goal7–10
SEAQ2 11:051258Touchdown14–10
NEQ2 5:47945Field goal14–13
SEAQ2 2:31419Punt14–13
NEQ2 1:3732Punt14–13
SEAQ2 0:35426Field goal17–13
SEAQ3 15:001051Turnover on downs17–13
NEQ3 10:21419Punt17–13
SEAQ3 7:3533Punt17–13
NEQ3 6:363-6Punt17–13
SEAQ3 5:3636Punt17–13
NEQ3 4:031166Touchdown17–20
SEAQ4 12:43619Punt17–20
NEQ4 9:09750Missed field goal17–20
SEAQ4 3:54847Field goal20–20
NEQ4 0:5537Punt20–20
SEAQ4 0:1500End of half20–20
NEOT39Punt20–20
SEAOT851Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith33/4432710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet14382.71
Geno Smith581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf10141291
Jaxon Smith-Njigba12161170
Zach Charbonnet55310
Tyler Lockett22150
Jake Bobo22150
Noah Fant13140
Laviska Shenault Jr.1160

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett15/2714910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson11968.70
Rhamondre Stevenson21813.91
Jacoby Brissett263.00
JaMycal Hasty122.00
Ja'Lynn Polk100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry8121090
Ja'Lynn Polk23121
Rhamondre Stevenson2590
Antonio Gibson1170
K.J. Osborn1270
Austin Hooper1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.73