2014 · SB

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

28·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

47

Model margin

+4.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.090EPA / play+0.091
  • 46.4%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.046EPA / rush+0.030
  • 7.6%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +1.32CPOE+4.40
  • 45.6%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.06
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–3 since 1999

SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NE @ SEA10–13SEA
2025 · playoffsSEA @ NE29–13SEA
2024 · W2SEA @ NE23–20SEA
2020 · W2NE @ SEA30–35SEA
2016 · W10SEA @ NE31–24SEA
2012 · W6NE @ SEA23–24SEA
2008 · W14NE @ SEA24–21NE
2004 · W6SEA @ NE20–30NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–SEA
NEQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:3438Punt0–0
NEQ1 9:201358Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 1:39512Punt0–0
NEQ2 13:57965Touchdown7–0
SEAQ2 9:4732Punt7–0
NEQ2 8:0537Punt7–0
SEAQ2 7:07875Touchdown7–7
NEQ2 2:16875Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 0:31570Touchdown14–14
NEQ2 0:0200End of half14–14
SEAQ3 15:00672Field goal14–17
NEQ3 11:09612Turnover14–17
SEAQ3 8:07645Touchdown14–24
NEQ3 4:54411Punt14–24
SEAQ3 3:15433Punt14–24
NEQ3 0:5538Punt14–24
SEAQ4 14:173-5Punt14–24
NEQ4 12:10953Touchdown21–24
SEAQ4 7:5535Punt21–24
NEQ4 6:521174Touchdown28–24
SEAQ4 2:02779Turnover28–24
NEQ4 0:2000End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady37/5032842

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount14402.90
Shane Vereen4133.30
Julian Edelman177.00
Tom Brady2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman9121091
Rob Gronkowski610681
Shane Vereen1112640
Danny Amendola57481
Brandon LaFell47291
Michael Hoomanawanui1140

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson12/2124721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch241024.31
Russell Wilson33913.00
Robert Turbin22110.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Matthews451091
Ricardo Lockette35590
Jermaine Kearse36450
Marshawn Lynch12310
Doug Baldwin1131
Bryan Walters0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.00%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.73