Closing spread
NE -1
Total
47
Model margin
+4.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.091
- 46.4%Success rate44.0%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.030
- 7.6%Explosive rate11.7%
- +1.32CPOE+4.40
- 45.6%Third-down rate43.4%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 2.38Points / drive2.06
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 37/50 | 328 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 12 | 109 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 10 | 68 | 1 |
| Shane Vereen | 11 | 12 | 64 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 7 | 48 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12/21 | 247 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 24 | 102 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Matthews | 4 | 5 | 109 | 1 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Bryan Walters | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.73