Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.176EPA / play+0.109
- 50.2%Success rate45.2%
- +0.282EPA / dropback+0.213
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.005
- 9.5%Explosive rate11.2%
- +1.48CPOE+5.50
- 48.4%Third-down rate39.8%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.71Points / drive2.17
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 36/58 | 395 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevan Ridley | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 10 | 14 | 138 | 1 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 12 | 80 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 6 | 9 | 30 | 1 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Stevan Ridley | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 16/27 | 293 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 3 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 3 | 74 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ben Obomanu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony McCoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.32