2012 · Week 6

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

23·24

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 63°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NE -3.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.176EPA / play+0.109
  • 50.2%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.282EPA / dropback+0.213
  • +0.031EPA / rush-0.005
  • 9.5%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +1.48CPOE+5.50
  • 48.4%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.71Points / drive2.17
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–3 since 1999

SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NE @ SEA10–13SEA
2025 · playoffsSEA @ NE29–13SEA
2024 · W2SEA @ NE23–20SEA
2020 · W2NE @ SEA30–35SEA
2016 · W10SEA @ NE31–24SEA
2014 · playoffsNE @ SEA28–24NE
2008 · W14NE @ SEA24–21NE
2004 · W6SEA @ NE20–30NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–SEA
NEQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:52968Field goal0–3
NEQ1 7:35682Touchdown7–3
SEAQ1 5:49790Touchdown7–10
NEQ1 1:501690Touchdown14–10
SEAQ2 10:33727Turnover14–10
NEQ2 6:571041Field goal17–10
SEAQ2 2:12618Turnover on downs17–10
NEQ2 0:40421End of half17–10
SEAQ3 15:003-4Punt17–10
NEQ3 13:04748Field goal20–10
SEAQ3 9:21622Punt20–10
NEQ3 7:13631Turnover20–10
SEAQ3 4:4537Punt20–10
NEQ3 3:161145Turnover20–10
SEAQ4 13:29310Turnover20–10
NEQ4 12:31753Field goal23–10
SEAQ4 9:21568Touchdown23–17
NEQ4 7:21736Punt23–17
SEAQ4 3:5637Punt23–17
NEQ4 3:0232Punt23–17
SEAQ4 2:38457Touchdown23–24
NEQ4 1:1848Turnover on downs23–24
SEAQ4 0:5100End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady36/5839522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stevan Ridley16342.10
Brandon Bolden6284.70
Danny Woodhead4256.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker10141381
Brandon Lloyd612800
Rob Gronkowski69610
Danny Woodhead55460
Daniel Fells11350
Aaron Hernandez69301
Deion Branch1450
Stevan Ridley1200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson16/2729330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch15412.70
Robert Turbin5275.40
Russell Wilson5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice36811
Doug Baldwin23741
Golden Tate36470
Zach Miller22290
Braylon Edwards23211
Robert Turbin22210
Marshawn Lynch11110
Leon Washington1290
Ben Obomanu0100
Anthony McCoy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.32