Closing spread
SEA -4.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.154
- 46.6%Success rate48.2%
- +0.137EPA / dropback+0.308
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.5%
- +4.54CPOE+10.94
- 40.9%Third-down rate43.3%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
- 2.22Points / drive2.47
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NE are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 19/38 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 27 | 135 | 5.0 | 0 |
| George Holani | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 12 | 61 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 4 | 4 | 54 | 1 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 4 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| George Holani | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 27/43 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
- Home-field advantage0.00
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67