2025 · SB

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

29·13

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 67°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPatriots
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.154
  • 46.6%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback+0.308
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.089
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +4.54CPOE+10.94
  • 40.9%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate63.4%
  • 2.22Points / drive2.47
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–3 since 1999

SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NE are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NE @ SEA10–13SEA
2024 · W2SEA @ NE23–20SEA
2020 · W2NE @ SEA30–35SEA
2016 · W10SEA @ NE31–24SEA
2014 · playoffsNE @ SEA28–24NE
2012 · W6NE @ SEA23–24SEA
2008 · W14NE @ SEA24–21NE
2004 · W6SEA @ NE20–30NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NE
SEAQ1 15:00751Field goal3–0
NEQ1 11:58828Punt3–0
SEAQ1 7:1134Punt3–0
NEQ1 6:0746Punt3–0
SEAQ1 3:29610Punt3–0
NEQ1 0:1935Punt3–0
SEAQ2 14:10755Field goal6–0
NEQ2 11:163-2Punt6–0
SEAQ2 9:16829Punt6–0
NEQ2 4:58615Punt6–0
SEAQ2 2:50834Field goal9–0
NEQ2 0:1100End of half9–0
NEQ3 15:0037Punt9–0
SEAQ3 14:02969Field goal12–0
NEQ3 9:1239Punt12–0
SEAQ3 7:3432Punt12–0
NEQ3 5:1036Punt12–0
SEAQ3 3:3836Punt12–0
NEQ3 1:5555Turnover12–0
SEAQ3 0:10537Touchdown19–0
NEQ4 13:24365Touchdown19–7
SEAQ4 12:27410Punt19–7
NEQ4 10:40740Turnover19–7
SEAQ4 8:37530Field goal22–7
NEQ4 5:35418Opp touchdown29–7
NEQ4 4:27975Touchdown29–13
SEAQ4 2:214-2Punt29–13
NEQ4 1:49855End of half29–13

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold19/3820210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III271355.00
George Holani263.00
Sam Darnold252.50
Rashid Shaheed1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp612610
AJ Barner44541
Rashid Shaheed25270
Jaxon Smith-Njigba410270
Kenneth Walker III24260
George Holani1170

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye27/4329522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drake Maye5377.40
Rhamondre Stevenson7233.30
TreVeyon Henderson6193.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins48781
DeMario Douglas57450
Rhamondre Stevenson55401
Stefon Diggs33370
Hunter Henry35310
TreVeyon Henderson33260
Kayshon Boutte15210
Austin Hooper23100
Kyle Williams1270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.36%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.67
  • Home-field advantage0.00
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.67