2026 · Week 1

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

10·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Sam Darnold

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 74°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.057EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.5%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.214EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.225
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +7.72CPOE+1.94
  • 41.4%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 62.7%Red-zone TD rate58.1%
  • 2.07Points / drive1.93
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–3 since 1999

SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsSEA @ NE29–13SEA
2024 · W2SEA @ NE23–20SEA
2020 · W2NE @ SEA30–35SEA
2016 · W10SEA @ NE31–24SEA
2014 · playoffsNE @ SEA28–24NE
2012 · W6NE @ SEA23–24SEA
2008 · W14NE @ SEA24–21NE
2004 · W6SEA @ NE20–30NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00530Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:42822Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:29520Punt0–0
NEQ1 4:35520Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:22417Punt0–0
NEQ2 14:481143Touchdown7–0
SEAQ2 9:11634Punt7–0
NEQ2 4:39845Punt7–0
SEAQ2 0:50619End of half7–0
NEQ3 15:00724Field goal10–0
SEAQ3 11:49414Punt10–0
NEQ3 9:2935Punt10–0
SEAQ3 6:53736Field goal10–3
NEQ3 3:13738Turnover10–3
SEAQ4 14:12567Touchdown10–10
NEQ4 11:2858Turnover10–10
SEAQ4 9:20749Field goal10–13
NEQ4 5:501772Turnover10–13
SEAQ4 0:2100End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye23/3317813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson18512.80
Drake Maye7476.70
Corey Kiner6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mack Hollins45510
Rhamondre Stevenson56440
Hunter Henry33260
A.J. Brown34260
DeMario Douglas57200
Lan Larison2290
Eli Raridon1121
Romeo Doubs0300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock16/2218710
Sam Darnold1/21300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jadarian Price10525.20
George Holani8293.60
Drew Lock2136.50
Emanuel Wilson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba8111221
Cooper Kupp23350
Brady Russell22200
AJ Barner22130
Jadarian Price2260
Rashid Shaheed1340
George Holani0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.12