Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.2est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.092EPA / play+0.029
- 40.8%Success rate38.8%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.196
- -0.451EPA / rush-0.195
- 1.4%Explosive rate10.2%
- +5.97CPOE+2.36
- 31.3%Third-down rate18.2%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 1.11Points / drive1.29
- 4.2%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 23/33 | 178 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Drake Maye | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Corey Kiner | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 5 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Lan Larison | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Eli Raridon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 16/22 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1/2 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| George Holani | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 8 | 11 | 122 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Brady Russell | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jadarian Price | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| George Holani | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.9%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.00
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.21