Closing spread
NE -3.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play+0.099
- 44.4%Success rate46.5%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.228
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- 37.2%Third-down rate45.1%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.81Points / drive2.15
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.004EPA / play allowed-0.088
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NE are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 37 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:06 | 5 | 26 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 7:44 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 5:02 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| SEA | Q1 2:14 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NE | Q1 0:39 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SEA | Q2 12:32 | 7 | 59 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| NE | Q2 9:35 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| SEA | Q2 3:07 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| NE | Q2 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–20 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–20 |
| SEA | Q3 13:13 | 10 | 73 | Field goal | 9–20 |
| NE | Q3 9:01 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 9–20 |
| SEA | Q3 3:39 | 4 | 32 | Punt | 9–20 |
| NE | Q3 2:07 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 9–20 |
| SEA | Q4 14:51 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 9–20 |
| NE | Q4 14:02 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 9–20 |
| SEA | Q4 12:37 | 4 | 45 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| NE | Q4 11:05 | 11 | 68 | Field goal | 17–23 |
| SEA | Q4 6:43 | 10 | 54 | Field goal | 20–23 |
| NE | Q4 3:01 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 20–30 |
| SEA | Q4 1:55 | 12 | 63 | End of half | 20–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/50 | 349 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/30 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 23 | 105 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.53