Closing spread
SEA -4
Total
45
Model margin
+3.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.105
- 46.5%Success rate48.8%
- -0.040EPA / dropback+0.164
- +0.052EPA / rush-0.013
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.06CPOE+6.78
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.6%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
- 1.88Points / drive2.52
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 30/44 | 397 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Sony Michel | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 8 | 11 | 179 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 8 | 12 | 72 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Ryan Izzo | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/28 | 288 | 5 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 17 | 72 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 6 | 92 | 1 |
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| David Moore | 3 | 3 | 48 | 1 |
| Chris Carson | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50