2020 · Week 2

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Cam Newton

30·35

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -4

Total

45

Model margin

+3.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.105
  • 46.5%Success rate48.8%
  • -0.040EPA / dropback+0.164
  • +0.052EPA / rush-0.013
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -2.06CPOE+6.78
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate72.6%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.52
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–3 since 1999

SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. SEA are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NE @ SEA10–13SEA
2025 · playoffsSEA @ NE29–13SEA
2024 · W2SEA @ NE23–20SEA
2016 · W10SEA @ NE31–24SEA
2014 · playoffsNE @ SEA28–24NE
2012 · W6NE @ SEA23–24SEA
2008 · W14NE @ SEA24–21NE
2004 · W6SEA @ NE20–30NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00313Opp touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 13:391490Touchdown7–7
NEQ1 5:271263Touchdown14–7
SEAQ2 13:59524Punt14–7
NEQ2 10:0939Punt14–7
SEAQ2 8:48475Touchdown14–14
NEQ2 6:57745Missed field goal14–14
SEAQ2 3:441018Punt14–14
NEQ2 0:1811End of half14–14
NEQ3 15:001268Field goal17–14
SEAQ3 10:12675Touchdown17–21
NEQ3 7:04631Turnover17–21
SEAQ3 4:30552Touchdown17–28
NEQ3 2:00677Touchdown23–28
SEAQ4 14:1448Punt23–28
NEQ4 12:11622Punt23–28
SEAQ4 8:56965Touchdown23–35
NEQ4 4:32775Touchdown30–35
SEAQ4 2:1639Punt30–35
NEQ4 1:421074End of half30–35

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton30/4439711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton11474.32
Sony Michel7192.70
Rex Burkhead620.30
J.J. Taylor1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman8111790
Damiere Byrd69720
N'Keal Harry812720
Rex Burkhead46470
Ryan Izzo22190
Jakobi Meyers1170
Jakob Johnson1111
Sony Michel0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/2828851

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson17724.20
Russell Wilson5397.80
Carlos Hyde5224.40
Travis Homer3217.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf46921
Tyler Lockett78671
David Moore33481
Chris Carson33361
Freddie Swain11211
Carlos Hyde22150
Will Dissly1190
Greg Olsen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50