2016 · Week 10

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

31·24

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NE -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPatriots
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.128
  • 44.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.276
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +4.81CPOE+2.98
  • 38.7%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.47
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 6–3 since 1999

SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NE are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NE @ SEA10–13SEA
2025 · playoffsSEA @ NE29–13SEA
2024 · W2SEA @ NE23–20SEA
2020 · W2NE @ SEA30–35SEA
2014 · playoffsNE @ SEA28–24NE
2012 · W6NE @ SEA23–24SEA
2008 · W14NE @ SEA24–21NE
2004 · W6SEA @ NE20–30NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–NE
NEQ1 15:001066Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 10:19752Field goal3–7
NEQ1 7:1033Punt3–7
SEAQ1 5:461046Field goal6–7
NEQ1 1:3333Punt6–7
SEAQ1 0:021070Touchdown12–7
NEQ2 10:52410Turnover12–7
SEAQ2 9:0465Punt12–7
NEQ2 6:041265Touchdown12–14
SEAQ2 1:05775Touchdown19–14
NEQ2 0:0600End of half19–14
SEAQ3 15:0037Punt19–14
NEQ3 13:261176Touchdown19–21
SEAQ3 7:52955Field goal22–21
NEQ3 2:521078Field goal22–24
SEAQ4 13:00762Field goal25–24
NEQ4 8:5625Turnover25–24
SEAQ4 8:29848Touchdown31–24
NEQ4 4:241179Turnover on downs31–24
SEAQ4 0:1120End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson25/3734830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Prosise17663.90
Christine Michael5224.40
Russell Wilson362.00
Alex Collins122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
C.J. Prosise77870
Tyler Lockett36720
Doug Baldwin68593
Paul Richardson23520
Jimmy Graham44480
Jermaine Kearse27260
Christine Michael1140

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3231601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount21693.33
Tom Brady571.40
James White252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett771020
Julian Edelman79990
Rob Gronkowski36560
James White44320
Danny Amendola11140
Malcolm Mitchell12130
Chris Hogan0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+4.27