Closing spread
NE -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.128
- 44.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.276
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.6%
- +4.81CPOE+2.98
- 38.7%Third-down rate47.3%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.88Points / drive2.47
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 6–3 since 1999
SEA have won 5 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NE are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 25/37 | 348 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Prosise | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Prosise | 7 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 8 | 59 | 3 |
| Paul Richardson | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 2 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/32 | 316 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 21 | 69 | 3.3 | 3 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| James White | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 7 | 7 | 102 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| James White | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+4.27