Closing spread
NYJ -9
Total
41
Model margin
+8.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.038
- 44.2%Success rate47.0%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.059EPA / rush+0.048
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.44CPOE+3.75
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.6%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.85
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 11:51 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 7:44 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| BUF | Q1 3:44 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 14:26 | 5 | 30 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| BUF | Q2 11:56 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 6:44 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 10–14 |
| BUF | Q2 4:10 | 4 | 24 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 2:05 | 5 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| BUF | Q2 0:55 | 5 | 18 | End of half | 17–21 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 3 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:43 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| BUF | Q3 8:05 | 6 | 20 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:35 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 20–21 |
| BUF | Q3 0:40 | 2 | 2 | Turnover | 20–21 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:51 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 20–24 |
| BUF | Q4 13:17 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 20–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:16 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–24 |
| BUF | Q4 8:45 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 27–24 |
| BUF | Q4 4:20 | 5 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 27–31 |
| BUF | Q4 1:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 27–31 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:37 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 27–31 |
| BUF | Q4 1:17 | 6 | 23 | Turnover | 27–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 24/39 | 148 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/30 | 207 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 47 | 47.0 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.34