Closing spread
NYJ -9
Total
41
Model margin
+8.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.038
- 44.2%Success rate47.0%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.059EPA / rush+0.048
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.44CPOE+3.75
- 40.4%Third-down rate40.6%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.85
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Losman | 24/39 | 148 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 127 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
| J.P. Losman | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Steve Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/30 | 207 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 20 | 78 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 47 | 47.0 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 27 | 27.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.34