Closing spread
DEN -6.5
Total
46
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play+0.101
- 44.2%Success rate49.2%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.44CPOE+1.41
- 40.4%Third-down rate48.2%
- 44.7%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.59Points / drive2.01
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 6–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. DEN are 3-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 17/25 | 193 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Xavier Omon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 25/45 | 359 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 71 | 71.0 | 0 |
| P.J. Pope | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Tatum Bell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.15