2009 · Week 17

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

7·44

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

MIN -9

Total

48

Model margin

+6.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapVikings
  • +0.062EPA / play+0.085
  • 44.1%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.178EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.130
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +2.61CPOE+5.77
  • 42.5%Third-down rate45.4%
  • 56.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.31
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 12–7 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16MIN @ NYG16–13MIN
2024 · W1MIN @ NYG28–6MIN
2022 · playoffsNYG @ MIN31–24NYG
2022 · W16NYG @ MIN24–27MIN
2019 · W5MIN @ NYG28–10MIN
2016 · W4NYG @ MIN10–24MIN
2015 · W16NYG @ MIN17–49MIN
2013 · W7MIN @ NYG7–23NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–MIN
MINQ1 15:00555Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 12:57518Punt0–7
MINQ1 9:55444Punt0–7
NYGQ1 8:04725Punt0–7
MINQ1 4:38854Field goal0–10
NYGQ2 14:4637Punt0–10
MINQ2 12:43696Touchdown0–17
NYGQ2 8:5236Punt0–17
MINQ2 6:22744Touchdown0–24
NYGQ2 2:3910Turnover0–24
MINQ2 2:24950Touchdown0–31
NYGQ2 0:07126End of half0–31
NYGQ3 15:0037Punt0–31
MINQ3 13:241057Field goal0–34
NYGQ3 8:051-5Turnover0–34
MINQ3 7:5148Touchdown0–41
NYGQ3 6:133-6Punt0–41
MINQ3 4:39742Field goal0–44
NYGQ3 0:101177Touchdown7–44
MINQ4 9:11312Punt7–44
NYGQ4 7:13626Punt7–44
MINQ4 4:51628End of half7–44

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning17/2314101
David Carr3/52600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D.J. Ware5224.41
Ahmad Bradshaw7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith1012570
Ahmad Bradshaw23330
Derek Hagan22310
D.J. Ware23190
Ramses Barden11160
Travis Beckum22160
Kevin Boss0300
Hakeem Nicks12-50

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre25/3131640
Tarvaris Jackson4/64200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson9546.01
Albert Young10404.00
Percy Harvin12222.00
Chester Taylor7121.70
Brett Favre122.00
Tarvaris Jackson3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sidney Rice661122
Visanthe Shiancoe78941
Percy Harvin710590
Bernard Berrian23500
Jimmy Kleinsasser22170
Chester Taylor23170
Jeff Dugan1170
Adrian Peterson1110
Greg Lewis0100
Darius Reynaud0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +96.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.2%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.53