Closing spread
MIN -9
Total
48
Model margin
+6.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.062EPA / play+0.085
- 44.1%Success rate45.1%
- +0.178EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.130
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.4%
- +2.61CPOE+5.77
- 42.5%Third-down rate45.4%
- 56.6%Red-zone TD rate68.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.31
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. MIN are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/23 | 141 | 0 | 1 |
| David Carr | 3/5 | 26 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Ware | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 10 | 12 | 57 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/31 | 316 | 4 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 4/6 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Albert Young | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Rice | 6 | 6 | 112 | 2 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 7 | 8 | 94 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 7 | 10 | 59 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Reynaud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.53