Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.106
- 41.7%Success rate40.1%
- -0.016EPA / dropback-0.089
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.132
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.81CPOE-1.94
- 40.4%Third-down rate38.1%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.34Points / drive1.49
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 21/34 | 182 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 18 | 62 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 8 | 13 | 53 | 0 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 18/34 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 4 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.2%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.94