2010 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

15·10

Bills

Buffalo

QB Trent Edwards

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 62°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIA -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

-2.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapBills
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.106
  • 41.7%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback-0.089
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.132
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.81CPOE-1.94
  • 40.4%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.49
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 35–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10BUF @ MIA13–30MIA
2025 · W3MIA @ BUF21–31BUF
2024 · W9MIA @ BUF27–30BUF
2024 · W2BUF @ MIA31–10BUF
2023 · W18BUF @ MIA21–14BUF
2023 · W4MIA @ BUF20–48BUF
2022 · playoffsMIA @ BUF31–34BUF
2022 · W15MIA @ BUF29–32BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–BUF
BUFQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
MIAQ1 14:02837Field goal3–0
BUFQ1 8:54612Punt3–0
MIAQ1 4:45515Punt3–0
BUFQ1 2:4238Punt3–0
MIAQ1 1:211270Touchdown10–0
BUFQ2 11:12727Field goal10–3
MIAQ2 7:081355Missed field goal10–3
BUFQ2 0:16219Missed field goal10–3
MIAQ3 15:0032Punt10–3
BUFQ3 14:0834Punt10–3
MIAQ3 12:45612Punt10–3
BUFQ3 10:1930Punt10–3
MIAQ3 8:4533Punt10–3
BUFQ3 7:06715Punt10–3
MIAQ3 4:25620Punt10–3
BUFQ3 0:363-4Punt10–3
MIAQ4 13:59848Field goal13–3
BUFQ4 9:321085Touchdown13–10
MIAQ4 5:13725Punt13–10
BUFQ4 1:4840Safety15–10
MIAQ4 1:3239Punt15–10
BUFQ4 0:2949Turnover on downs15–10

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne21/3418200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronnie Brown13655.01
Ricky Williams18623.40
Davone Bess100.00
Chad Henne2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall813530
Davone Bess67510
Anthony Fasano33460
Ronnie Brown23200
Ricky Williams0100
Brian Hartline0300
Marlon Moore0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Edwards18/3413910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson4194.80
Marshawn Lynch3134.30
Trent Edwards2126.00
C.J. Spiller760.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson35400
Roscoe Parrish23351
Lee Evans47340
David Nelson36220
C.J. Spiller4680
Fred Jackson2400
Marshawn Lynch0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.2%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.68
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.94