Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
43
Model margin
+6.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.220EPA / play+0.066
- 37.1%Success rate43.3%
- -0.248EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
- -9.59CPOE+0.37
- 27.4%Third-down rate46.9%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.06Points / drive2.13
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Anderson | 17/31 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
| Max Hall | 1/2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 115 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Jason Wright | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 12 | 83 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/32 | 225 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 9 | 75 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 7 | 12 | 78 | 1 |
| Brian Finneran | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.14