2010 · Week 2

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Derek Anderson

7·41

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

43

Model margin

+6.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.220EPA / play+0.066
  • 37.1%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.248EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.3%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -9.59CPOE+0.37
  • 27.4%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 45.0%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.06Points / drive2.13
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16ATL @ ARI26–19ATL
2023 · W10ATL @ ARI23–25ARI
2022 · W17ARI @ ATL19–20ATL
2019 · W6ATL @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W15ARI @ ATL14–40ATL
2016 · W12ARI @ ATL19–38ATL
2014 · W13ARI @ ATL18–29ATL
2013 · W8ATL @ ARI13–27ARI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00955Touchdown0–7
ARIQ1 10:33630Punt0–7
ATLQ1 6:26739Punt0–7
ARIQ1 3:14533Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 1:30739Field goal0–10
ARIQ2 13:06180Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 12:541163Touchdown7–17
ARIQ2 9:18415Punt7–17
ATLQ2 7:29961Touchdown7–24
ARIQ2 3:31940Missed field goal7–24
ATLQ2 0:3914Turnover7–24
ARIQ2 0:324-6Turnover on downs7–24
ARIQ3 15:0023Turnover7–24
ATLQ3 14:03314Touchdown7–31
ARIQ3 13:18520Punt7–31
ATLQ3 10:341569Field goal7–34
ARIQ3 3:57423Punt7–34
ATLQ3 1:38937Punt7–34
ARIQ4 12:06527Punt7–34
ATLQ4 9:461170Touchdown7–41
ARIQ4 3:0523Turnover7–41
ATLQ4 2:2500Turnover on downs7–41
ARIQ4 0:311-1End of half7–41

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Anderson17/3116102
Max Hall1/2301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower1111510.51
Jason Wright231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald712830
Stephen Williams26260
LaRod Stephens-Howling34250
Ben Patrick12110
Steve Breaston35100
Tim Hightower2290
Max Komar0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3222530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner9758.30
Matt Ryan661.00
Harry Douglas1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White712781
Brian Finneran33311
Harry Douglas28310
Tony Gonzalez22190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.2%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.3%

Expected total

42.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.14