Closing spread
NO -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.039
- 43.3%Success rate46.2%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.117
- 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +0.37CPOE+5.83
- 46.9%Third-down rate48.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.13Points / drive1.88
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/30 | 228 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 30 | 114 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 26 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 9 | 110 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/38 | 365 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Moore | 6 | 7 | 149 | 2 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 8 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.41