2010 · Week 3 · Division

Final / OT

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

27·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.039
  • 43.3%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.121
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.117
  • 6.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +0.37CPOE+5.83
  • 46.9%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.88
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:0436Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 11:42980Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 6:5310Turnover7–7
ATLQ1 6:303-1Punt7–7
NOQ1 5:32486Touchdown7–14
ATLQ1 3:31733Punt7–14
NOQ2 14:53654Turnover7–14
ATLQ2 11:422072Touchdown14–14
NOQ2 1:03434End of half14–14
NOQ3 15:001047Turnover14–14
ATLQ3 8:471063Field goal17–14
NOQ3 3:4336Punt17–14
NOQ3 2:32542Touchdown17–21
ATLQ3 0:041170Touchdown24–21
NOQ4 9:20518Punt24–21
ATLQ4 7:55843Turnover on downs24–21
NOQ4 3:32948Field goal24–24
ATLQ4 0:0400End of half24–24
ATLOT3-6Punt24–24
NOOT657Missed field goal24–24
ATLOT1359Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3022820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner301143.81
Matt Ryan6264.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez891101
Roddy White56691
Michael Turner23110
Harry Douglas1510

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/3836532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas9303.30
Chris Ivory7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lance Moore671492
Jeremy Shockey88781
Pierre Thomas66610
Marques Colston45250
David Thomas33240
Devery Henderson25230
Robert Meachem1250
Jimmy Graham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.41