Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
35.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.071
- 41.8%Success rate41.7%
- +0.015EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.1%
- -4.95CPOE-1.81
- 40.2%Third-down rate40.4%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.69Points / drive1.34
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 15/28 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 6 | 10 | 98 | 2 |
| Braylon Edwards | 2 | 3 | 87 | 1 |
| David Clowney | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 26/44 | 363 | 2 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 10 | 17 | 166 | 1 |
| Davone Bess | 6 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 11 | 84 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 5 | 14 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.90
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.59