Closing spread
MIA -1
Total
48
Model margin
-1.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play-0.071
- 48.7%Success rate41.7%
- +0.265EPA / dropback-0.016
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.155
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.1%
- +2.77CPOE-1.81
- 48.3%Third-down rate40.4%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.76Points / drive1.34
- 0.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 29–25 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 28-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/24 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 29/39 | 302 | 2 | 3 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2/6 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 9 | 12 | 93 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 3 | 9 | 21 | 0 |
| Roberto Wallace | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick Cobbs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.76