2010 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

41·14

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

MIA -1

Total

48

Model margin

-1.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.191EPA / play-0.071
  • 48.7%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback-0.016
  • +0.096EPA / rush-0.155
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +2.77CPOE-1.81
  • 48.3%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 2.76Points / drive1.34
  • 0.9%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 30–25 since 1999

NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8NE @ MIA24–19NE
2025 · W18MIA @ NE10–38NE
2025 · W2NE @ MIA33–27NE
2024 · W12NE @ MIA15–34MIA
2024 · W5MIA @ NE15–10MIA
2023 · W8NE @ MIA17–31MIA
2023 · W2MIA @ NE24–17MIA
2022 · W17MIA @ NE21–23NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00742Punt0–0
NEQ1 10:5636Punt0–0
MIAQ1 9:50874Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 5:48524Punt0–7
MIAQ1 2:56412Turnover0–7
NEQ1 1:241555Field goal3–7
MIAQ2 7:13941Turnover3–7
NEQ2 2:471263Field goal12–7
NEQ3 15:0000Touchdown13–7
MIAQ3 14:4636Punt13–7
NEQ3 13:26215Touchdown20–7
MIAQ3 12:44885Touchdown20–14
NEQ3 8:561278Touchdown27–14
MIAQ3 4:021154Opp touchdown34–14
MIAQ4 14:05730Turnover on downs34–14
NEQ4 10:3633Punt34–14
MIAQ4 9:15629Opp touchdown41–14
MIAQ4 6:30727Turnover41–14
NEQ4 4:36525End of half41–14

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/2415310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis16764.81
Danny Woodhead8364.50
Tom Brady561.20
Sammy Morris231.50
Brian Hoyer1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker810700
Brandon Tate45390
Aaron Hernandez55290
Danny Woodhead11111
Rob Gronkowski1140
Randy Moss0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne29/3930223
Tyler Thigpen2/61501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams8567.00
Ronnie Brown11272.50
Tyler Thigpen11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess912931
Anthony Fasano56670
Brandon Marshall58500
Ricky Williams44451
Ronnie Brown44290
Brian Hartline39210
Roberto Wallace11120
Patrick Cobbs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.76