2010 · Week 4

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

14·16

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -7

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.066
  • 38.8%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.8%Explosive rate6.3%
  • -4.51CPOE+0.37
  • 33.2%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.30Points / drive2.13
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 44.9 points. ATL are 9-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7SF @ ATL20–29ATL
2025 · W7ATL @ SF10–20SF
2022 · W6SF @ ATL14–28ATL
2021 · W15ATL @ SF13–31SF
2019 · W15ATL @ SF29–22ATL
2016 · W15SF @ ATL13–41ATL
2015 · W9ATL @ SF16–17SF
2013 · W16ATL @ SF24–34SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00524Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:131051Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 5:5734Opp touchdown14–0
ATLQ1 4:261266Touchdown14–7
SFQ2 13:09517Punt14–7
ATLQ2 9:59830Turnover14–7
SFQ2 6:37634Punt14–7
ATLQ2 3:443-1Punt14–7
SFQ2 2:45435Turnover14–7
ATLQ2 1:131154Field goal14–10
SFQ3 15:001132Turnover14–10
ATLQ3 9:16630Field goal14–13
SFQ3 5:4936Punt14–13
ATLQ3 4:0334Punt14–13
SFQ3 2:37526Punt14–13
ATLQ3 0:04840Punt14–13
SFQ4 10:251458Punt14–13
ATLQ4 3:40738Turnover14–13
ATLQ4 1:221168Field goal14–16
SFQ4 0:0200End of half14–16

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith21/3218812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore21773.70
Anthony Dixon133.00
Alex Smith111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Frank Gore78600
Michael Crabtree56580
Vernon Davis45361
Josh Morgan27200
Delanie Walker1260
Nate Byham1100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan26/4327312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner16503.10
Matt Ryan4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White791040
Harry Douglas38591
Tony Gonzalez712410
Brian Finneran46360
Michael Turner34280
Justin Peelle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.82%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.39