Closing spread
ATL -7
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.066
- 38.8%Success rate43.3%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.8%Explosive rate6.3%
- -4.51CPOE+0.37
- 33.2%Third-down rate46.9%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.30Points / drive2.13
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 21/32 | 188 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 77 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 7 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 2 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 26/43 | 273 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 7 | 9 | 104 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 12 | 41 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39