Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.106
- 44.9%Success rate40.1%
- +0.010EPA / dropback-0.089
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.132
- 10.6%Explosive rate8.1%
- +1.85CPOE-1.94
- 39.5%Third-down rate38.1%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.49
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 16/20 | 178 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 3 | 53 | 17.7 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcedes Lewis | 4 | 5 | 54 | 2 |
| Mike Thomas | 4 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/30 | 220 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 12 | 73 | 6.1 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Evans | 5 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 9 | 46 | 2 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.69