2010 · Week 5

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

36·26

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroplay · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

BUF -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapBills
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.106
  • 44.9%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback-0.089
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.132
  • 10.6%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +1.85CPOE-1.94
  • 39.5%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.49
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 10–8 since 1999

BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 11-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsBUF @ JAX27–24BUF
2024 · W3JAX @ BUF10–47BUF
2023 · W5JAX @ BUF25–20JAX
2021 · W9BUF @ JAX6–9JAX
2018 · W12JAX @ BUF21–24BUF
2017 · playoffsBUF @ JAX3–10JAX
2016 · W12JAX @ BUF21–28BUF
2015 · W7BUF @ JAX31–34JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–BUF
BUFQ1 15:003-3Punt0–6
BUFQ1 13:09145Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 13:01319Turnover0–7
BUFQ1 11:38424Field goal0–10
JAXQ1 9:07527Field goal3–10
BUFQ1 5:581685Field goal3–13
JAXQ2 12:081144Field goal6–13
BUFQ2 5:5235Punt6–13
JAXQ2 4:361085Touchdown13–13
BUFQ2 0:251-7End of half13–13
JAXQ3 15:00339Touchdown20–13
BUFQ3 13:22419Punt20–13
JAXQ3 11:0949Turnover20–13
BUFQ3 8:57636Touchdown20–20
JAXQ3 6:561173Touchdown27–20
BUFQ3 1:283-3Punt27–20
JAXQ4 14:47537Field goal30–20
BUFQ4 11:4444Turnover on downs30–20
JAXQ4 10:07521Field goal33–20
BUFQ4 6:27735Turnover on downs33–20
JAXQ4 4:27424Field goal36–20
BUFQ4 2:40666Touchdown36–26
JAXQ4 1:3424End of half36–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard16/2017831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew19844.40
Deji Karim15704.70
Mike Thomas35317.70
David Garrard393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcedes Lewis45542
Mike Thomas44510
Mike Sims-Walker45461
Zach Miller22180
Maurice Jones-Drew2490

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3022030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson12736.10
C.J. Spiller5316.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lee Evans58871
Roscoe Parrish45580
Steve Johnson59462
David Nelson33230
Jonathan Stupar11100
C.J. Spiller1230
Fred Jackson12-70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.69