Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
43
Model margin
-2.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.078
- 43.3%Success rate44.2%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.066EPA / rush+0.029
- 6.3%Explosive rate11.1%
- +0.37CPOE+4.09
- 46.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.13Points / drive1.97
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/42 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Jenkins | 5 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 6 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 4 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 7 | 19 | 2 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 23/29 | 326 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 1 |
| Eldra Buckley | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 7 | 7 | 159 | 2 |
| Jason Avant | 5 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 34 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Chad Hall | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.66