2010 · Week 6

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

17·31

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Kevin Kolb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

43

Model margin

-2.7est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.078
  • 43.3%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.066EPA / rush+0.029
  • 6.3%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +0.37CPOE+4.09
  • 46.9%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.97
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
ATLQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:59253Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 12:09652Missed field goal0–7
PHIQ1 9:18669Touchdown0–14
ATLQ1 6:5035Punt0–14
PHIQ1 4:39514Punt0–14
ATLQ1 2:2738Punt0–14
PHIQ1 1:02834Missed field goal0–14
ATLQ2 12:224-1Punt0–14
PHIQ2 10:33734Touchdown0–21
ATLQ2 7:341152Turnover0–21
PHIQ2 2:58845Turnover0–21
ATLQ2 0:52523Touchdown7–21
PHIQ2 0:1400End of half7–21
PHIQ3 15:0032Punt7–21
ATLQ3 13:251365Field goal10–21
PHIQ3 6:59280Touchdown10–28
ATLQ3 6:11511Punt10–28
PHIQ3 4:34950Missed field goal10–28
ATLQ4 14:1130Punt10–28
PHIQ4 13:46951Missed field goal10–28
ATLQ4 7:21868Touchdown17–28
PHIQ4 5:40632Field goal17–31
ATLQ4 3:01316Turnover17–31
PHIQ4 2:44411End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/4225021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner15453.00
Matt Ryan133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Jenkins511990
Roddy White611830
Harry Douglas46320
Tony Gonzalez37192
Michael Turner1240
Michael Palmer1110

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb23/2932631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy21643.00
DeSean Jackson24422.01
Eldra Buckley12403.30
Chad Hall155.00
Kevin Kolb210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin771592
Jason Avant55620
Brent Celek47460
DeSean Jackson11341
LeSean McCoy44210
Chad Hall1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.71
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.66