Closing spread
NE -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play+0.191
- 41.8%Success rate48.7%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.102EPA / rush+0.096
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.2%
- +2.93CPOE+2.77
- 38.4%Third-down rate48.3%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.78Points / drive2.76
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 27/35 | 285 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 28 | 88 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 8 | 10 | 100 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 10 | 38 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 27/44 | 292 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Woodhead | 11 | 63 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 9 | 12 | 98 | 1 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 7 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+5.17