2010 · Week 6

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·23

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 57°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NE -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapPatriots
  • +0.028EPA / play+0.191
  • 41.8%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.102EPA / rush+0.096
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +2.93CPOE+2.77
  • 38.4%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.76
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–5 since 1999

Meetings average 47.7 points. NE are 8-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16NE @ BAL28–24NE
2022 · W3BAL @ NE37–26BAL
2020 · W10BAL @ NE17–23NE
2019 · W9NE @ BAL20–37BAL
2016 · W14BAL @ NE23–30NE
2014 · playoffsBAL @ NE31–35NE
2013 · W16NE @ BAL41–7NE
2012 · playoffsBAL @ NE28–13BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–NE
BALQ1 15:001486Field goal3–0
NEQ1 6:2832Punt3–0
BALQ1 5:2333Punt3–0
NEQ1 3:33666Touchdown3–7
BALQ1 0:25931Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 11:47638Punt10–7
BALQ2 9:53728Punt10–7
NEQ2 5:3738Punt10–7
BALQ2 4:2339Punt10–7
NEQ2 2:5348Punt10–7
BALQ2 1:3935Punt10–7
NEQ2 0:2900End of half10–7
NEQ3 15:00716Turnover10–7
BALQ3 11:42341Touchdown17–7
NEQ3 10:23860Field goal17–10
BALQ3 6:401379Field goal20–10
NEQ4 14:53947Touchdown20–17
BALQ4 11:02427Punt20–17
NEQ4 8:411395Field goal20–20
BALQ4 1:5134Punt20–20
NEQ4 0:4549Turnover20–20
BALOT35Punt20–20
NEOT3-3Punt20–20
BALOT735Punt20–20
NEOT34Punt20–20
BALOT310Punt20–20
NEOT645Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco27/3528520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice28883.10
Joe Flacco252.50
Anquan Boldin1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason8101000
Anquan Boldin46631
Todd Heap34491
Ray Rice810380
T.J. Houshmandzadeh22240
Ed Dickson1170

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady27/4429212

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Danny Woodhead11635.70
Brandon Tate12222.00
BenJarvus Green-Ellis10202.01
Aaron Hernandez11818.00
Sammy Morris133.00
Tom Brady210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch912981
Aaron Hernandez46610
Wes Welker711530
Danny Woodhead57520
Rob Gronkowski11240
Alge Crumpler1240
Brandon Tate0400
Julian Edelman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+5.17