Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.017
- 41.8%Success rate39.3%
- +0.015EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.205
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
- -4.95CPOE-2.61
- 40.2%Third-down rate31.6%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 1.69Points / drive1.70
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/30 | 198 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Shonn Greene | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 8 | 46 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 4 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 14/34 | 209 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Kyle Orton | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabar Gaffney | 6 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 10 | 37 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Daniel Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.17