2010 · Week 6

Final

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

24·20

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.017
  • 41.8%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.205
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -4.95CPOE-2.61
  • 40.2%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.70
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DEN
NYJQ1 15:003-1Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:58223Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 13:2532Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:2634Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:3323Turnover0–0
DENQ1 9:42623Turnover on downs0–0
NYJQ1 6:341377Touchdown7–0
DENQ2 14:54880Touchdown7–7
NYJQ2 11:1100Punt7–7
DENQ2 11:1064Punt7–7
NYJQ2 9:20725Punt7–7
DENQ2 5:0831Punt7–7
NYJQ2 4:06739Turnover7–7
DENQ2 0:39624Field goal7–10
DENQ3 15:001130Missed field goal7–10
NYJQ3 9:38523Field goal10–10
DENQ3 6:41620Punt10–10
NYJQ3 3:5033Punt10–10
DENQ3 2:59551Touchdown10–17
NYJQ3 1:23255Turnover10–17
DENQ3 0:363-5Punt10–17
NYJQ4 13:5236Punt10–17
DENQ4 12:2530Punt10–17
NYJQ4 10:43554Touchdown17–17
DENQ4 8:36855Field goal17–20
NYJQ4 3:551134Touchdown24–20
DENQ4 1:13536Turnover24–20
NYJQ4 0:3500End of half24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/3019812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaDainian Tomlinson16553.42
Shonn Greene9434.80
Brad Smith3186.00
Santonio Holmes11414.00
Mark Sanchez1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dustin Keller36750
Santonio Holmes45470
Braylon Edwards48461
Jerricho Cotchery47180
LaDainian Tomlinson22120
Shonn Greene0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton14/3420910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno12484.00
Tim Tebow6233.81
Kyle Orton3227.30
Correll Buckhalter6203.30
Laurence Maroney7182.60
Eddie Royal11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jabar Gaffney68810
Brandon Lloyd410740
Eddie Royal310370
Demaryius Thomas14171
Daniel Graham0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+0.17