Closing spread
BAL -12
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play+0.028
- 40.1%Success rate41.8%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.102
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.94CPOE+2.93
- 38.1%Third-down rate38.4%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.49Points / drive1.78
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41 points. BAL are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29/43 | 374 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 23 | 73 | 3.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 10 | 158 | 1 |
| Lee Evans | 6 | 10 | 105 | 3 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 8 | 12 | 49 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stupar | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/31 | 250 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 11 | 64 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 13 | 92 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 5 | 59 | 2 |
| Derrick Mason | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.32%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.66