2010 · Week 7

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

34·37

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -12

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapRavens
  • -0.106EPA / play+0.028
  • 40.1%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.102
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.94CPOE+2.93
  • 38.1%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.78
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 8–7 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. BAL are 7-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8BAL @ BUF10–36BUF
2025 · W1BAL @ BUF40–41BUF
2024 · playoffsBAL @ BUF25–27BUF
2024 · W4BUF @ BAL10–35BAL
2022 · W4BUF @ BAL23–20BUF
2020 · playoffsBAL @ BUF3–17BUF
2019 · W14BAL @ BUF24–17BAL
2018 · W1BUF @ BAL3–47BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–BAL
BALQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:025-4Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:48650Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 8:21682Touchdown7–3
BALQ1 5:0600Field goal7–3
BUFQ1 5:00612Field goal10–3
BALQ1 2:01737Punt10–3
BUFQ2 14:411191Touchdown17–3
BALQ2 9:46540Touchdown17–10
BUFQ2 8:15682Touchdown24–10
BALQ2 4:561055Field goal24–13
BUFQ2 0:4800Touchdown24–13
BALQ2 0:48427Touchdown24–20
BUFQ2 0:2300End of half24–20
BUFQ3 15:0010Turnover24–26
BALQ3 14:51134Touchdown24–27
BUFQ3 14:441246Turnover on downs24–27
BALQ3 7:241362Touchdown24–34
BUFQ3 0:5936Turnover24–34
BALQ4 15:0010Turnover24–34
BUFQ4 14:56942Punt24–34
BALQ4 9:5337Punt24–34
BUFQ4 8:28668Touchdown31–34
BALQ4 5:46540Punt31–34
BUFQ4 3:261159Field goal34–34
BALQ4 0:0400End of half34–34
BALOT32Punt34–34
BUFOT323Turnover34–34
BALOT34Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick29/4337442

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson23733.20
C.J. Spiller7334.70
Ryan Fitzpatrick4205.00
Roscoe Parrish166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson8101581
Lee Evans6101053
Roscoe Parrish812490
David Nelson24250
Shawn Nelson23160
Jonathan Stupar1180
Fred Jackson1240

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/3125030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice16724.50
Willis McGahee11645.81
Joe Flacco2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin613921
Todd Heap35592
Derrick Mason23480
Willis McGahee12100
Ed Dickson1250
Ray Rice1210
T.J. Houshmandzadeh0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.32%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.0%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.73
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.66