Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Patriots
- OutFred TaylorRBToe· DNP
- OutJarrad PageSCalf· DNP
- QuestionableJulian EdelmanWRConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableKyle ArringtonCBGroin· Limited
- LimitedWes WelkerWRNot Injury Related
- ProbableJames SandersSHamstring· Full
- ProbableTom BradyQBright Shoulder· Full
Chargers
- OutLarry EnglishLBFoot· DNP
- OutNate KaedingKright Groin· DNP
- DoubtfulLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulMalcom FloydWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEToe· DNP
- QuestionableKion WilsonLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCraig DavisWRRibs· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:50 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:00 | 10 | 36 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 5:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 4:29 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 3:24 | 5 | 17 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:00 | 4 | 39 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 14:02 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 13:03 | 9 | 44 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| NE | Q2 8:45 | 3 | -14 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 6:51 | 4 | 3 | Turnover | 10–3 |
| NE | Q2 5:03 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 3:37 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| NE | Q2 1:59 | 8 | 6 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LAC | Q2 0:23 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 13–3 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 18 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| LAC | Q3 6:25 | 11 | 70 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| NE | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 59 | Field goal | 23–6 |
| LAC | Q4 11:27 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| NE | Q4 7:21 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 23–13 |
| LAC | Q4 7:21 | 9 | 60 | Touchdown | 23–20 |
| NE | Q4 4:01 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 23–20 |
| LAC | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 20 | Missed field goal | 23–20 |
| NE | Q4 0:22 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/32 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.