Closing spread
SD -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.8est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. SD are 6-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/32 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 11 | 24 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Hernandez | 5 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.