Closing spread
KC -7
Total
45
Model margin
+6.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play+0.034
- 40.1%Success rate42.3%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.099
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.1%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.94CPOE-1.87
- 38.1%Third-down rate37.4%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
- 1.49Points / drive1.70
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 12–11 since 1999
Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 24/48 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Roscoe Parrish | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roscoe Parrish | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Lee Evans | 5 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 5 | 10 | 37 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 14/26 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 22 | 177 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Thomas Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Verran Tucker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.35