2010 · Week 8

Final / OT

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

10·13

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

45

Model margin

+6.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChiefs
  • -0.106EPA / play+0.034
  • 40.1%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.099
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.031
  • 8.1%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.94CPOE-1.87
  • 38.1%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate54.6%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.70
  • 3.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 12–11 since 1999

Meetings average 45.3 points. KC are 9-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9KC @ BUF21–28BUF
2024 · playoffsBUF @ KC29–32KC
2024 · W11KC @ BUF21–30BUF
2023 · playoffsKC @ BUF27–24KC
2023 · W14BUF @ KC20–17BUF
2022 · W6BUF @ KC24–20BUF
2021 · playoffsBUF @ KC36–42KC
2021 · W5BUF @ KC38–20BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–KC
KCQ1 15:00652Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:12922Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:05517Punt0–0
BUFQ1 5:28612Punt0–0
KCQ1 1:271345Turnover on downs0–0
BUFQ2 10:0732Punt0–0
KCQ2 8:49620Punt0–0
BUFQ2 5:4439Punt0–0
KCQ2 3:54671Touchdown0–7
BUFQ2 1:28913Turnover on downs0–7
BUFQ3 15:001466Field goal3–7
KCQ3 6:03529Punt3–7
BUFQ3 3:2739Punt3–7
KCQ3 1:381159Field goal3–10
BUFQ4 9:361588Touchdown10–10
KCQ4 2:1839Punt10–10
BUFQ4 1:17411Turnover10–10
KCQ4 0:201-8End of half10–10
BUFOT416Punt10–10
KCOT531Punt10–10
BUFOT856Missed field goal10–10
KCOT636Missed field goal10–10
BUFOT824Punt10–10
KCOT553Field goal10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick24/4822311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson20643.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick6437.20
C.J. Spiller6172.80
Roscoe Parrish11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roscoe Parrish48660
Lee Evans59560
Steve Johnson510371
C.J. Spiller46280
David Nelson35250
Fred Jackson38110

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel14/2615210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles221778.00
Thomas Jones19774.10
Matt Cassel2136.50
Dwayne Bowe144.00
Jackie Battle133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamaal Charles45610
Tony Moeaki34450
Leonard Pope24200
Dwayne Bowe36161
Thomas Jones1150
Terrance Copper1150
Chris Chambers0100
Verran Tucker0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.35