2010 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

21·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -10

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.046EPA / play+0.066
  • 42.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.066
  • 10.0%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +2.31CPOE+0.37
  • 42.5%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.13
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001361Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 8:061030Punt0–7
ATLQ1 2:381194Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 13:39432Touchdown7–14
ATLQ2 12:101152Field goal7–17
TBQ2 5:27790Touchdown14–17
ATLQ2 2:06517Punt14–17
TBQ2 0:5531Punt14–17
ATLQ2 0:33311End of half14–17
TBQ3 15:0025Turnover14–17
ATLQ3 13:34635Touchdown14–24
TBQ3 10:31724Punt14–24
ATLQ3 6:401169Field goal20–27
TBQ3 0:4600Touchdown21–27
ATLQ3 0:3032Punt21–27
TBQ4 13:59540Turnover21–27
ATLQ4 11:46411Punt21–27
TBQ4 10:051356Turnover on downs21–27
ATLQ4 2:37314End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman11/2218922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13463.50
Josh Freeman4266.50
Cadillac Williams8131.60
Preston Parker177.00
Arrelious Benn144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams410891
Micheal Spurlock22460
Kellen Winslow34310
Arrelious Benn11141
Cadillac Williams1290
Preston Parker0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3623510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner241074.52
Matt Ryan351.70
Roddy White133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez811720
Michael Jenkins24550
Roddy White46490
Brian Finneran35240
Michael Palmer22111
Harry Douglas0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.24