2010 · Week 9 · Division
Final
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play+0.066
- 42.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.066
- 10.0%Explosive rate6.3%
- +2.31CPOE+0.37
- 42.5%Third-down rate46.9%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.88Points / drive2.13
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. ATL are 21-27-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 11/22 | 189 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/36 | 235 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 24 | 107 | 4.5 | 2 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 8 | 11 | 72 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 2 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.24