2010 · Week 10

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

39·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PIT -4.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.191EPA / play+0.035
  • 48.7%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.265EPA / dropback+0.166
  • +0.096EPA / rush-0.126
  • 10.2%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +2.77CPOE+3.44
  • 48.3%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 65.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.76Points / drive1.89
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 15–5 since 1999

Meetings average 46 points. PIT are 6-13-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2PIT @ NE3–20NE
2025 · W3PIT @ NE21–14PIT
2023 · W14NE @ PIT21–18NE
2022 · W2NE @ PIT17–14NE
2019 · W1PIT @ NE3–33NE
2018 · W15NE @ PIT10–17PIT
2017 · W15NE @ PIT27–24NE
2016 · playoffsPIT @ NE17–36NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–PIT
PITQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:55870Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 9:487-1Punt7–0
NEQ1 6:291061Field goal10–0
PITQ1 1:03916Punt10–0
NEQ2 12:47645Punt10–0
PITQ2 10:301072Field goal10–3
NEQ2 5:08418Punt10–3
PITQ2 2:5243Punt10–3
NEQ2 1:36617Punt10–3
PITQ2 0:42541End of half10–3
NEQ3 15:001078Touchdown17–3
PITQ3 9:483-11Punt17–3
NEQ3 8:014-3Punt17–3
PITQ3 6:29721Missed field goal17–3
NEQ3 3:40785Touchdown23–3
PITQ3 0:22871Touchdown23–10
NEQ4 12:11631Punt23–10
PITQ4 9:12212Opp touchdown29–10
NEQ4 8:3200Opp touchdown29–10
PITQ4 8:32553Touchdown29–18
NEQ4 6:44541Touchdown36–18
PITQ4 4:23680Touchdown36–26
NEQ4 2:59410Field goal39–26
PITQ4 1:53665End of half39–26

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady30/4335030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis18874.80
Danny Woodhead4112.80
Tom Brady133.01
Sammy Morris122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wes Welker812890
Rob Gronkowski55723
Deion Branch78710
Brandon Tate24500
BenJarvus Green-Ellis45360
Danny Woodhead23220
Sammy Morris1260
Alge Crumpler1140
Aaron Hernandez0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger30/4938731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall11504.50
Mewelde Moore4143.50
Ben Roethlisberger11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace8111362
Mewelde Moore55790
Antwaan Randle El59660
Heath Miller59600
Emmanuel Sanders59411
Rashard Mendenhall2350
Hines Ward0100
Arnaz Battle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.84