Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.191EPA / play+0.035
- 48.7%Success rate40.3%
- +0.265EPA / dropback+0.166
- +0.096EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.2%Explosive rate10.5%
- +2.77CPOE+3.44
- 48.3%Third-down rate44.1%
- 65.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.76Points / drive1.89
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 14–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. PIT are 6-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 30/43 | 350 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 18 | 87 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Welker | 8 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 5 | 5 | 72 | 3 |
| Deion Branch | 7 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 30/49 | 387 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 8 | 11 | 136 | 2 |
| Mewelde Moore | 5 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 5 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 5 | 9 | 41 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.84