Closing spread
NYJ -3.5
Total
37
Model margin
-0.2est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play-0.077
- 41.8%Success rate40.5%
- +0.015EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.056EPA / rush-0.126
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -4.95CPOE+2.13
- 40.2%Third-down rate37.8%
- 43.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.69Points / drive1.31
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CLE are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 27/44 | 299 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 20 | 72 | 3.6 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 18 | 57 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santonio Holmes | 5 | 8 | 76 | 1 |
| Braylon Edwards | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 6 | 10 | 53 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 4 | 43 | 1 |
| Dustin Keller | 3 | 9 | 25 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 18/31 | 205 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 19 | 82 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Thomas Clayton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 10 | 74 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 1 | 37 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Peyton Hillis | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Robert Royal | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.23