2010 · Week 10

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

26·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Colt McCoy

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 17mph

Closing spread

NYJ -3.5

Total

37

Model margin

-0.2est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.019EPA / play-0.077
  • 41.8%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.015EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.056EPA / rush-0.126
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -4.95CPOE+2.13
  • 40.2%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 43.6%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.69Points / drive1.31
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYJ lead 10–6 since 1999

NYJ have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.5 points. CLE are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CLE @ NYJ12–17NYJ
2025 · W10CLE @ NYJ20–27NYJ
2023 · W17NYJ @ CLE20–37CLE
2022 · W2NYJ @ CLE31–30NYJ
2020 · W16CLE @ NYJ16–23NYJ
2019 · W2CLE @ NYJ23–3CLE
2018 · W3NYJ @ CLE17–21CLE
2017 · W5NYJ @ CLE17–14NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001164Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 9:52833Field goal3–3
CLEQ1 5:52211Turnover3–3
NYJQ1 5:1336Missed field goal3–3
CLEQ1 3:06656Touchdown3–10
NYJQ1 0:16976Touchdown10–10
CLEQ2 11:09966Field goal10–13
NYJQ2 5:131348Touchdown17–13
CLEQ2 0:2300End of half17–13
NYJQ3 15:001975Missed field goal17–13
CLEQ3 4:5632Punt17–13
NYJQ3 3:59511Punt17–13
CLEQ3 1:2443Punt17–13
NYJQ4 14:193-3Punt17–13
CLEQ4 12:2839Punt17–13
NYJQ4 10:271366Field goal20–13
CLEQ4 2:421059Touchdown20–20
NYJQ4 0:4425End of half20–20
NYJOT415Punt20–20
CLEOT628Turnover20–20
NYJOT840Missed field goal20–20
CLEOT37Punt20–20
NYJOT847Turnover20–20
CLEOT3-1Punt26–20
NYJOT137Touchdown26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez27/4429921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene20723.60
LaDainian Tomlinson18573.20
Brad Smith5397.80
Mark Sanchez242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santonio Holmes58761
Braylon Edwards47590
LaDainian Tomlinson610530
Jerricho Cotchery34431
Dustin Keller39250
Shonn Greene33220
Brad Smith1160

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy18/3120510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis19824.31
Josh Cribbs11414.00
Colt McCoy4112.80
Thomas Clayton100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson510740
Josh Cribbs11370
Chansi Stuckey46270
Peyton Hillis45270
Evan Moore13180
Robert Royal11140
Mohamed Massaquoi2481

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.23