2010 · Week 11

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

49·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 65°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

CIN -4

Total

41

Model margin

+4.0est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapBengals
  • -0.106EPA / play-0.042
  • 40.1%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.089EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.132EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -1.94CPOE+0.88
  • 38.1%Third-down rate39.8%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
  • 1.49Points / drive1.45
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 9–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14CIN @ BUF34–39BUF
2023 · W9BUF @ CIN18–24CIN
2022 · playoffsCIN @ BUF27–10CIN
2019 · W3CIN @ BUF17–21BUF
2017 · W5BUF @ CIN16–20CIN
2016 · W11BUF @ CIN16–12BUF
2015 · W6CIN @ BUF34–21CIN
2013 · W6CIN @ BUF27–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–CIN
CINQ1 15:001367Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 8:071479Touchdown7–7
CINQ1 2:04678Touchdown7–14
BUFQ2 14:1022Turnover7–14
CINQ2 13:17529Touchdown7–21
BUFQ2 10:5933Opp touchdown7–28
BUFQ2 10:101374Missed field goal7–28
CINQ2 4:223-9Punt7–28
BUFQ2 2:38456Touchdown14–28
CINQ2 1:17755Field goal14–31
BUFQ3 15:00973Touchdown21–31
CINQ3 10:43213Opp touchdown28–31
CINQ3 9:541579Turnover28–31
BUFQ3 3:00849Touchdown35–31
CINQ4 14:1330Punt35–31
BUFQ4 13:05349Touchdown42–31
CINQ4 11:361451Missed field goal42–31
BUFQ4 5:28528Punt42–31
CINQ4 2:4220Turnover42–31
BUFQ4 2:30236Touchdown49–31
CINQ4 1:525-2End of half49–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3431642

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Jackson211165.52
Ryan Fitzpatrick11111.00
Quinton Ganther11111.00
Jehuu Caulcrick122.00
Donald Jones111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Johnson8111373
Lee Evans28720
Donald Jones55701
David Martin23150
Fred Jackson35130
Shawn Nelson1190
David Nelson0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer19/3423022
Jordan Palmer3/31800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson251245.01
Carson Palmer2126.00
Bernard Scott3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Shipley59710
Terrell Owens39631
Jermaine Gresham23330
Chad Johnson36281
Brian Leonard34230
Cedric Benson33220
Andre Caldwell1190
Quan Cosby1150
Bernard Scott11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.98