Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.106EPA / play-0.042
- 40.1%Success rate44.3%
- -0.089EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -1.94CPOE+0.88
- 38.1%Third-down rate39.8%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.49Points / drive1.45
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. CIN are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/34 | 316 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Quinton Ganther | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jehuu Caulcrick | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 8 | 11 | 137 | 3 |
| Lee Evans | 2 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Donald Jones | 5 | 5 | 70 | 1 |
| David Martin | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Shawn Nelson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 19/34 | 230 | 2 | 2 |
| Jordan Palmer | 3/3 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 25 | 124 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipley | 5 | 9 | 71 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Quan Cosby | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.98