Closing spread
NE -4
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.191
- 47.2%Success rate48.7%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.265
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.096
- 6.7%Explosive rate10.2%
- +3.98CPOE+2.77
- 44.8%Third-down rate48.3%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.12Points / drive2.76
- 2.2%Turnover rate0.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 38/52 | 396 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Brown | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 8 | 10 | 107 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 7 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Blair White | 5 | 7 | 42 | 2 |
| Donald Brown | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Javarris James | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Gijon Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/25 | 186 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Danny Woodhead | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deion Branch | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 5 | 7 | 58 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Danny Woodhead | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Aaron Hernandez | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.60