2010 · Week 11

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

28·31

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 37°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -4

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.191
  • 47.2%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.096
  • 6.7%Explosive rate10.2%
  • +3.98CPOE+2.77
  • 44.8%Third-down rate48.3%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.76
  • 2.2%Turnover rate0.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
INDQ1 15:00843Turnover0–0
NEQ1 10:02432Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 8:00523Punt0–7
NEQ1 6:011681Touchdown0–14
INDQ2 13:151169Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 7:53865Touchdown7–21
INDQ2 3:341295Touchdown14–21
NEQ2 0:0400End of half14–21
NEQ3 15:00514Punt14–21
INDQ3 11:541146Punt14–21
NEQ3 5:53979Touchdown14–28
INDQ3 1:1125Turnover14–28
NEQ3 0:18954Field goal14–31
INDQ4 10:23773Touchdown21–31
NEQ4 7:5736Punt21–31
INDQ4 7:04758Touchdown28–31
NEQ4 4:46417Punt28–31
INDQ4 2:25955Turnover28–31
NEQ4 0:3100End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning38/5239643

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Donald Brown17684.00
Javarris James331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne8101071
Pierre Garcon510620
Jacob Tamme711600
Austin Collie56600
Blair White57422
Donald Brown33400
Javarris James44240
Gijon Robinson1111

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/2518620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis21964.61
Danny Woodhead7699.91
Sammy Morris252.50
Tom Brady4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deion Branch710700
Wes Welker57581
Rob Gronkowski11250
Danny Woodhead44210
Aaron Hernandez1181
BenJarvus Green-Ellis1140
Julian Edelman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.60