Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.066
- 45.9%Success rate43.3%
- +0.186EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.3%
- +5.31CPOE+0.37
- 41.3%Third-down rate46.9%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.91Points / drive2.13
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
Meetings average 53.8 points. ATL are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 26/35 | 344 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Dimitri Nance | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 5 | 8 | 119 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| James Jones | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Brett Swain | 2 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/28 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 23 | 110 | 4.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 6 | 6 | 51 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.27