2010 · Week 12

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.066
  • 45.9%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.2%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +5.31CPOE+0.37
  • 41.3%Third-down rate46.9%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.13
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 9–8 since 1999

ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 53.5 points. ATL are 10-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ATL @ GB35–14ATL
2023 · W2GB @ ATL24–25ATL
2020 · W4ATL @ GB16–30GB
2018 · W14ATL @ GB20–34GB
2017 · W2GB @ ATL23–34ATL
2016 · playoffsGB @ ATL21–44ATL
2016 · W8GB @ ATL32–33ATL
2014 · W14ATL @ GB37–43GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001065Field goal0–3
GBQ1 9:3139Punt0–3
ATLQ1 7:163-3Punt0–3
GBQ1 5:05866Field goal3–3
ATLQ1 0:0437Punt3–3
GBQ2 13:151169Turnover3–3
ATLQ2 7:321480Touchdown3–10
GBQ2 0:0800End of half3–10
GBQ3 15:0038Punt3–10
ATLQ3 13:00420Punt3–10
GBQ3 10:09780Touchdown10–10
ATLQ3 7:171485Touchdown10–17
GBQ4 14:24952Turnover on downs10–17
ATLQ4 9:15520Punt10–17
GBQ4 5:5916100Touchdown17–17
ATLQ4 0:56520Field goal17–20
GBQ4 0:09135End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers26/3534410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers12514.31
Brandon Jackson10262.60
Dimitri Nance100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings581190
Jordy Nelson55611
James Jones58440
Brett Swain22400
Andrew Quarless33350
Donald Driver23260
Brandon Jackson34100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/2819710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner231104.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez66511
Roddy White57490
Michael Jenkins34240
Justin Peelle11140
Harry Douglas2370
Michael Turner1140
Gartrell Johnson1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.27