2010 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.046
- 43.3%Success rate42.0%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.066EPA / rush-0.133
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- +0.37CPOE+2.31
- 46.9%Third-down rate42.5%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 2.13Points / drive1.88
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/36 | 205 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 24 | 88 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 7 | 16 | 74 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Gartrell Johnson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Peelle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 19/38 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 1/1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 20 | 103 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 6 | 15 | 68 | 1 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ryan Purvis | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| John Gilmore | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.29