2010 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

28·24

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.046
  • 43.3%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.066EPA / rush-0.133
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.0%
  • +0.37CPOE+2.31
  • 46.9%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 2.13Points / drive1.88
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 26–25 since 1999

Meetings average 46.5 points. TB are 28-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8ATL @ TB0–16TB
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
ATLQ1 15:00828Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:1031Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:39652Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 6:231186Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 0:2532Punt7–7
TBQ2 13:4738Punt7–7
ATLQ2 12:11621Punt7–7
TBQ2 9:1838Punt7–7
ATLQ2 7:11860Touchdown14–7
TBQ2 4:3739Punt14–7
ATLQ2 2:24316Turnover14–7
TBQ2 1:39730Touchdown14–14
ATLQ2 0:1510End of half14–14
TBQ3 15:00751Field goal14–17
ATLQ3 11:34423Punt14–17
TBQ3 8:571235Punt14–17
ATLQ3 3:28826Punt14–17
TBQ4 14:3544Punt14–17
ATLQ4 12:3310Turnover14–17
TBQ4 12:24439Touchdown20–24
ATLQ4 10:2400Touchdown21–24
TBQ4 10:033-8Punt21–24
ATLQ4 8:301252Touchdown28–24
TBQ4 4:311062Turnover28–24
ATLQ4 1:50313End of half28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/3620522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner24883.71
Matt Ryan3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White716740
Tony Gonzalez35380
Michael Jenkins34301
Harry Douglas13210
Gartrell Johnson12100
Brian Finneran0200
Justin Peelle0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman19/3818111
Earnest Graham1/1210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount201035.21
Josh Freeman4287.00
Arrelious Benn2105.00
Cadillac Williams284.00
Sammie Stroughter122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams615681
Sammie Stroughter55390
Arrelious Benn15280
Kellen Winslow34260
Ryan Purvis12100
John Gilmore2261
Cadillac Williams2360
Micheal Spurlock0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.29